Silver Stripe Blog

I was discussing estimation of software projects, when it hit me that in many unfortunate organizations, estimates are not about reality, but about politics. Really, how often have you seen a discussion like this -

Manager: How long will the whole thing take?
Dev: Depends on the requirements and if they change. We’ll estimate on a 2 week basis. That way we can keep the plan close to reality and also adjust easily if requirements change.
Manager: We need to give the board a date
Dev: We can go through the requirements, but the final date will be very uncertain at this point
Manager: Doesn’t matter, lets just fix a date

<do some estimation and come up with some date>

Manager: We cant have that date, the board wants to have it done by the end of the year. Lets just cut the estimate to fit it in.
Dev:

<after one week>

Client: We’ve had some project changes here, so use this new requirements document
Manager: Sure.
Dev: We need to restimate all over again
Manager: Lets not, I’ve already committed the date to the board. I’m sure you guys can do it.

<at the end of the year>

Manager: So are we done?
Dev: No, we are about 40% there
Manager: What?? Your estimating sucks. What do I tell the board now? That you screwed up?

Amazing isn’t it? We’ve all been in situations where managers are more interested that the date be something that makes them look good than they are in having the date be realistic. If that is the aim of the estimate, then who can complain when the estimates are missed?