Is estimation at your company like this?
Posted on July 11th, 2007 in Management by siddharta ||
I was discussing estimation of software projects, when it hit me that in many unfortunate organizations, estimates are not about reality, but about politics. Really, how often have you seen a discussion like this -
Manager: How long will the whole thing take?
Dev: Depends on the requirements and if they change. We’ll estimate on a 2 week basis. That way we can keep the plan close to reality and also adjust easily if requirements change.
Manager: We need to give the board a date
Dev: We can go through the requirements, but the final date will be very uncertain at this point
Manager: Doesn’t matter, lets just fix a date<do some estimation and come up with some date>
Manager: We cant have that date, the board wants to have it done by the end of the year. Lets just cut the estimate to fit it in.
Dev:
<after one week>
Client: We’ve had some project changes here, so use this new requirements document
Manager: Sure.
Dev: We need to restimate all over again
Manager: Lets not, I’ve already committed the date to the board. I’m sure you guys can do it.<at the end of the year>
Manager: So are we done?
Dev: No, we are about 40% there
Manager: What?? Your estimating sucks. What do I tell the board now? That you screwed up?
Amazing isn’t it? We’ve all been in situations where managers are more interested that the date be something that makes them look good than they are in having the date be realistic. If that is the aim of the estimate, then who can complain when the estimates are missed?
July 13th, 2007 at 9:56 am
Actually, no; most estimation processes I’ve been involved in go more like:
Manager: How long will this project take?
Dev: Have you got the requirements from the customer?
Manager: I emailed them to you yesterday.
Dev: No, you sent me an email saying, “must record all relevant data and output in required formats.”
Manager: Yes. Those are the requirements.
Dev: And the data would be…?
Manager: You’ll have to get that from the customer once we’ve agreed a schedule.
Dev: I have no idea how long it will take until I have some idea what they want it to do.
Manager: Well, I’ve told them they can have it next week, anyway.
Dev: …?
I dream of moving up into your world where requirements actually exist before estimates.
July 13th, 2007 at 2:42 pm
Try this:
Manager: We need to build this.
Dev: I’m not familiar with that technology, if you want it done there will be some extra time while I get my bearings.
Manager: Ok, how long is it gonna take?
Dev: To learn something new? No idea. It depends on how complicated it turns out to be. I also have 2 other projects to work on and new issues keep coming up every day.
Manager: So what… a couple of weeks?
Dev: …
Manager: Ok, I’ll get a contractor I know for this one. I’ve already signed a contract saying it’ll take a month.
— 2 1/2 weeks later —
Manager: Ok, the contractor didn’t come through, I need you to do this in 10 days.
Dev: You want me to learn a new technology, analyze an existing program with no documentation that was originally written by students and upgrade it in 10 days?
Manager: Yes.
Dev: Hope your client isn’t big on lawsuits
July 13th, 2007 at 2:50 pm
Also had this:
Email from manager: I have a client that wants an e-commerce site to sell bike helmets. How long will it take?
My reply: I’ll need a little more info than that to come up with even an approximate estimate.
Email from manager: he sells helmets, people buy them and they pay. How long will it take?
My reply: this isn’t getting anywhere. Here’s a list of question I need answered for an estimate.
* I provide a 2-page list of questions for the client *
– 2 days without a reply pass –
Email from manager: I’ve asked for an estimate! What’s taking so long?!
Me: *loads the shotgun*
July 13th, 2007 at 4:40 pm
July 16th, 2007 at 9:37 pm
Boy those instances are hilarious and true too (sadly).
I am going through something very similar right now. When after the Schedule for a project was decided, a totally new requirement of making the website German Compatible with a different set of requirements was “adjusted” in the existing schedule.
July 21st, 2007 at 12:27 am
The thing that is most fundamentally broken about all this seems to be overlooked by most people. I guess people have been conditioned to accept this broken thing as acceptable. For the fundamental flaw simply look up the words “commit” and “estimate” in a dictionary.
Enjoy